European Energy Risk Dashboard

01 / European Gas Storage

38.2% full — 4.6 pts below five-year average

Storage at 38.2% — 4.6 percentage points below the five-year seasonal average. The steeper-than-average draw-down through winter 2025–26 reflects elevated heating demand and constrained pipeline supply. Refilling will need to sustain above-average injection rates through summer to reach safe winter buffer levels.

Source: AGSI+ / Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE) · Updated weekly

02 / Import Dependency

Russian pipeline share: 41% (2021) → 6% (2025).
LNG now 43% of imports — a new dependency.

Russian pipeline gas collapsed from 155 bcm in 2021 — 41% of total imports — to 16 bcm in 2025 (6%). LNG rose from 62 bcm to 121 bcm over the same period, largely compensating on volume. Norway remains the anchor of pipeline supply at ~110–120 bcm annually. Total import volumes have fallen as efficiency gains and demand destruction reduced overall consumption from ~375 bcm to ~285 bcm.

Source: Bruegel European Natural Gas Imports Tracker / ENTSOG Transparency Platform · Updated monthly

LNG by origin country

US LNG rose from 12 bcm in 2021 to 62 bcm in 2025, overtaking Qatar to become Europe's largest single LNG supplier. Russian LNG — primarily Yamal — continues to flow at ~14–16 bcm annually, a politically sensitive carve-out from the broader pipeline decoupling. Qatar remains stable at ~22 bcm.

03 / Industrial Cost Differential

EU industrial electricity price 47% above US, 75% above China

EU industrial electricity prices peaked at 168 EUR/MWh in 2022 and have partially normalised to 112 EUR/MWh — still 47% above US rates (76 EUR/MWh) and 75% above Chinese rates (64 EUR/MWh). The gap with the US pre-dated the crisis: EU prices were already 45% higher in 2019. Both the US and China sustained broadly stable industrial electricity costs through the 2021–22 energy shock that drove EU prices to crisis levels. The divergence is structural, not cyclical.

EUR/MWh · non-household consumers · taxes and levies included

Source: Eurostat electricity price statistics / IEA Energy Prices / US EIA International Energy Data / IEA China · Updated annually

04 / Fiscal Constraint

Italy 139% debt/GDP · France spreads at 68bps — constrained capacity to absorb shocks

France, Italy, and Spain face structural fiscal constraint as simultaneous demands — rearmament commitments, energy transition subsidies, industrial support schemes, and elevated refinancing costs — compete for limited fiscal headroom. France's sovereign spread has widened from a post-crisis low of 15bps (2021) to 68bps (2025). Italy's spread, while below its 2022 peak of 248bps, remains elevated at 148bps. Debt sustainability depends on growth assumptions that energy cost pressures may undermine.

Basis points vs German 10-year Bund

Source: ECB Data Portal / Eurostat Government Finance Statistics / IMF Fiscal Monitor · Updated monthly

05 / Energy-Intensive Industrial Output

EU output 18pts below 2019 baseline — US and China grew through the same period

EU energy-intensive industrial output fell ~20% from the 2019 baseline and has not recovered. Basic metals output — aluminium, steel — was hardest hit: several European smelters suspended production permanently from 2022. US and Chinese output in the same sectors held steady or grew through the same period. The divergence is not cyclical; it reflects a structural shift in where energy-intensive production is economically viable.

Index 2019 = 100 · basic metals, chemicals, non-metallic minerals

Source: Eurostat STS industrial production indices (sts_inpr_m) / US Federal Reserve FRED / IEA / NBS China · Updated annually

06 / EU Carbon Price (ETS)

EUA at ~68 EUR/tonne — a structural cost with no US or Asian equivalent

The EU Emissions Trading System adds a deliberate policy cost to carbon-intensive production. At ~68 EUR/tonne, ETS adds roughly 6–7 EUR/MWh to gas-fired power generation and a direct cost to industrial processes covered by the scheme — steel, cement, chemicals, aluminium. This cost has no equivalent in the US or most of Asia, structurally widening the competitive gap beyond raw energy prices. The 2022–23 peak at ~85 EUR/tonne coincided with the energy crisis, amplifying industrial pressure at the worst moment.

EUR/tonne CO₂ · EUA annual average spot price

Source: ICE Endex / EEX EU Allowances (EUA) — annual average spot price · Updated annually